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16 - Developments in landslide runout prediction
- Edited by John J. Clague, Simon Fraser University, British Columbia, Douglas Stead, Simon Fraser University, British Columbia
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- Book:
- Landslides
- Published online:
- 05 May 2013
- Print publication:
- 23 August 2012, pp 187-195
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- Chapter
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Summary
Abstract Runout analysis is a key component of landslide risk assessment and management, and a range of empirical and numerical methods for analyzing runout are available. Significant advances have been made in the development of numerical runout models over the past decade, particularly with respect to three-dimensional modeling capabilities. As demonstrated in a recent model benchmarking workshop, most modern numerical models are able to simulate the bulk characteristics of typical real landslides. On the other hand, progress has been slower in developing suitable methodologies for selecting input parameter values for prediction. Ideally, these methods should fit within the probabilistic framework of quantitative landslide risk assessment, allowing users to estimate the spatial probability of impact and associated hazard intensity throughout the runout zone. Recent work on advanced model calibration techniques has attempted to address this need. Simple probabilistic empirical–statistical techniques can be extended to numerical modeling applications and provide a useful reference point for these discussions.
Contributors
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- By Federico Agliardi, Andrea Alpiger, Gianluca Bianchi Fasani, Lars Harald Blikra, Brian D. Bornhold, Edward N. Bromhead, Marko H.K. Bulmer, D. Calvin Campbell, Marie Charrière, Masahiro Chigira, John J. Clague, John Coggan, Giovanni B. Crosta, Tim Davies, Marc-Henri Derron, Mark Diederichs, Erik Eberhardt, Carlo Esposito, Robin Fell, Paolo Frattini, Corey R. Froese, Monica Ghirotti, Valentin Gischig, James S. Griffiths, Stephen R. Hencher, Reginald L. Hermanns, Kris Holm, Seyyedmahdi Hosseyni, Niels Hovius, Christian Huggel, Florian Humair, Oldrich Hungr, D. Jean Hutchinson, Michel Jaboyedoff, Matthias Jakob, Julien Jakubowski, Randall W. Jibson, Katherine S. Kalenchuk, Nikolay Khabarov, Oliver Korup, Luca Lenti, Serge Leroueil, Simon Loew, Oddvar Longva, Patrick MacGregor, Andrew W. Malone, Salvatore Martino, Scott McDougall, Mika McKinnon, Mauri McSaveney, Patrick Meunier, Dennis Moore, Jeffrey R. Moore, David C. Mosher, Michael Obersteiner, Lucio Olivares, Thierry Oppikofer, Luca Pagano, Massimo Pecci, Andrea Pedrazzini, David Petley, Luciano Picarelli, David J.W. Piper, John Psutka, Nicholas J. Roberts, Gabriele Scarascia Mugnozza, David Stapledon, Douglas Stead, Richard E. Thomson, Paolo Tommasi, J. Kenneth Torrance, Nobuyuki Torii, Gianfranco Urciuoli, Gonghui Wang, Christopher F. Waythomas, Malcolm Whitworth, Heike Willenberg, Xiyong Wu
- Edited by John J. Clague, Simon Fraser University, British Columbia, Douglas Stead, Simon Fraser University, British Columbia
-
- Book:
- Landslides
- Published online:
- 05 May 2013
- Print publication:
- 23 August 2012, pp vii-x
-
- Chapter
- Export citation